The VacuumOne export control away from a halt.

The Vacuum

The West outsourced its mineral security.

Since 2023, China has moved from dominating supply to openly weaponizing it. Each restriction tests how fast Western supply can be halted. So far: days.

Aug 2024
Antimony
Export limits. Chinese shipments fell ~97%; prices roughly tripled.
Dec 2024
Gallium & Germanium
Exports to the US banned outright. Germanium prices climbed 70%+.
Apr 2025
Rare Earths & Magnets
Controls on 7 elements forced US manufacturers to halt production lines.

Rebuilding at home hits a second problem: 83% of major mining projects blow their budget, while China refines 19 of 20 strategic minerals and Western smelters sit in care and maintenance.

The Timing

The clock is already running.

Supply decoupling
The 2024–25 Chinese export restrictions broke the legacy defense supply chain and set a structural price floor under Western-produced minerals.
Regulatory mandate
The REEShore Act and 2026 DoD procurement bans wall out adversarial materials: a captive, premium-paying Western buyer base, written into law.
Hardware sovereignty
Sovereign AI hardware cannot exist without domestic control of the raw mineral inputs that feed it.